Performance-Vergleich · indiziert 100 = 2021-01-21
Wöchentliche Datenpunkte. Pelosi-Track: Einstieg am Transaktionsdatum (nicht öffentlich). Copycat-Track: Einstieg am Disclosure-Datum. Underlying-Äquivalent-Modell — Hebeleffekte ausgeschlossen.
Trade-for-Trade-Analyse
Lots tracked
67
Pelosi avg.
+83.1%
Copycat avg.
+82.8%
Info-lag alpha
+0.29%
Ø 20d lag
Open
27
Closed
40
Ø Disclosure lag
20 Tage
| Ticker | Lots | Pelosi | Copycat | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | 1 | +100.0% | +63.2% | +36.8% |
| MSFT | 6 | +103.6% | +87.7% | +15.9% |
| TSLA | 2 | −46.9% | −58.6% | +11.7% |
| AAPL | 14 | +46.5% | +35.5% | +11.0% |
| AVGO | 2 | +56.6% | +46.8% | +9.9% |
| TEM | 2 | +40.8% | +32.2% | +8.6% |
| AB | 3 | +67.3% | +59.9% | +7.4% |
| AMZN | 4 | +17.3% | +11.9% | +5.4% |
| DIS | 4 | −19.0% | −22.8% | +3.8% |
| MU | 1 | −41.5% | −44.8% | +3.4% |
| VST | 2 | +18.2% | +18.0% | +0.2% |
| RBLX | 2 | −23.4% | −18.8% | −4.7% |
| GOOGL | 5 | −8.4% | −3.7% | −4.7% |
| CRM | 2 | −48.0% | −41.2% | −6.8% |
| NVDA | 13 | +168.6% | +177.1% | −8.4% |
| PANW | 3 | +0.7% | +13.3% | −12.5% |
| PYPL | 1 | −57.7% | −28.7% | −29.0% |
| Ticker | Typ | Kauf privat | Kauf public | Exit | Lag | Shares | Entry(P) | Entry(Pub) | Exit | Pelosi | Copycat | Alpha | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | opt | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2021-12-30 | 30d | 3K | $128.14 | $132.99 | $174.21 | +36.0% | +29.0% | +6.9% | DAF |
| AAPL | opt | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2021-12-30 | 30d | 3K | $128.14 | $132.99 | $174.21 | +36.0% | +29.0% | +6.9% | DAF |
| AAPL | opt | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2022-06-17 | 30d | 4K | $128.14 | $132.99 | $128.97 | +0.6% | +9.4% | −8.8% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | opt | 2021-05-21 | 2021-07-02 | 2022-06-17 | 42d | 1K | $122.26 | $136.43 | $128.97 | +5.5% | +6.7% | −1.2% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | opt | 2021-05-21 | 2021-07-02 | 2023-05-08 | 42d | 3K | $122.26 | $136.43 | $170.86 | +39.8% | +29.5% | +10.2% | DAF |
| AAPL | opt | 2021-05-21 | 2021-07-02 | 2024-12-31 | 42d | 1K | $122.26 | $136.43 | $248.83 | +103.5% | +67.5% | +36.0% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | exrc | 2022-01-21 | 2022-02-28 | 2024-12-31 | 38d | 10K | $158.78 | $161.63 | $248.83 | +56.7% | +41.4% | +15.3% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | opt | 2022-05-13 | 2022-06-03 | 2024-12-31 | 21d | 10K | $144.22 | $142.52 | $248.83 | +72.5% | +60.3% | +12.2% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | opt | 2022-05-24 | 2022-06-03 | 2024-12-31 | 10d | 5K | $137.60 | $142.52 | $248.83 | +80.8% | +60.3% | +20.5% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | exrc | 2023-03-17 | 2023-04-06 | 2024-12-31 | 20d | 6K | $152.65 | $162.16 | $248.83 | +63.0% | +40.9% | +22.1% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | exrc | 2023-03-17 | 2023-04-06 | 2025-10-22 | 20d | 382 | $152.65 | $162.16 | $208.22 | +36.4% | +28.4% | +8.0% | DAF |
| AAPL | exrc | 2023-03-17 | 2023-04-06 | 2025-12-24 | 20d | 4K | $152.65 | $162.16 | $208.22 | +36.4% | +28.4% | +8.0% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | exrc | 2023-06-15 | 2023-06-22 | 2025-12-24 | 7d | 5K | $183.44 | $184.41 | $208.22 | +13.5% | +12.9% | +0.6% | geschlossen |
| AAPL | opt | 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-23 | 2025-12-30 | 24d | 2K | $208.22 | $208.22 | $208.22 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | DAF |
| AB | stk | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2026-05-28 | 30d | 20K | $21.04 | $22.46 | $38.00 | +80.6% | +69.2% | +11.4% | offen ← |
| AB | stk | 2021-02-18 | 2021-03-09 | 2026-05-28 | 19d | 15K | $23.89 | $24.47 | $38.00 | +59.1% | +55.3% | +3.7% | offen ← |
| AB | stk | 2021-02-23 | 2021-03-09 | 2026-05-28 | 14d | 25K | $23.42 | $24.47 | $38.00 | +62.3% | +55.3% | +7.0% | offen ← |
| AMZN | opt | 2021-05-21 | 2021-07-02 | 2025-12-24 | 42d | 2K | $160.15 | $175.55 | $230.19 | +43.7% | +31.1% | +12.6% | geschlossen |
| AMZN | opt | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-17 | 2025-12-24 | 3d | 5K | $217.76 | $225.94 | $230.19 | +5.7% | +1.9% | +3.8% | geschlossen |
| AMZN | opt | 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 24d | 2K | $230.19 | $230.19 | $230.19 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| AMZN | exrc | 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $230.19 | $230.19 | $230.19 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| AVGO | opt | 2024-06-24 | 2024-07-02 | 2026-05-28 | 8d | 2K | $156.53 | $162.95 | $300.89 | +92.2% | +84.7% | +7.6% | offen ← |
| AVGO | exrc | 2025-06-20 | 2025-07-09 | 2026-05-28 | 19d | 20K | $248.56 | $276.32 | $300.89 | +21.1% | +8.9% | +12.2% | offen ← |
| AXP | exrc | 2022-01-21 | 2022-02-28 | 2026-05-28 | 38d | 5K | $150.54 | $184.49 | $301.02 | +100.0% | +63.2% | +36.8% | offen ← |
| CRM | opt | 2021-12-20 | 2021-12-29 | 2022-12-20 | 9d | 10K | $243.63 | $250.86 | $126.59 | −48.0% | −41.2% | −6.8% | geschlossen |
| CRM | opt | 2021-12-20 | 2021-12-29 | 2022-12-20 | 9d | 3K | $243.63 | $250.86 | $126.59 | −48.0% | −41.2% | −6.8% | geschlossen |
| DIS | opt | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2022-12-21 | 30d | 10K | $166.53 | $167.34 | $84.92 | −49.0% | −41.7% | −7.3% | geschlossen |
| DIS | opt | 2021-12-17 | 2021-12-29 | 2025-12-30 | 12d | 5K | $145.34 | $151.31 | $118.74 | −18.3% | −21.5% | +3.2% | geschlossen |
| DIS | exrc | 2022-01-21 | 2022-02-28 | 2025-12-30 | 38d | 5K | $134.22 | $145.04 | $118.74 | −11.5% | −18.1% | +6.6% | geschlossen |
| DIS | exrc | 2022-01-21 | 2022-02-28 | 2026-05-28 | 38d | 5K | $134.22 | $145.04 | $118.74 | −11.5% | −18.1% | +6.6% | offen ← |
| GOOGL | exrc | 2022-09-16 | 2022-10-14 | 2022-12-20 | 28d | 10K | $101.96 | $95.77 | $88.29 | −13.4% | −5.6% | −7.8% | geschlossen |
| GOOGL | exrc | 2022-09-16 | 2022-10-14 | 2022-12-21 | 28d | 10K | $101.96 | $95.77 | $88.85 | −12.9% | −5.6% | −7.2% | geschlossen |
| GOOGL | opt | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-17 | 2025-12-30 | 3d | 5K | $188.79 | $195.10 | $196.09 | +3.9% | +0.5% | +3.4% | DAF |
| GOOGL | opt | 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-23 | 2025-12-30 | 24d | 2K | $196.09 | $196.09 | $196.09 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | DAF |
| GOOGL | exrc | 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $196.09 | $196.09 | $196.09 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| MSFT | exrc | 2021-03-19 | 2021-04-09 | 2024-07-26 | 21d | 5K | $220.56 | $244.97 | $418.69 | +89.8% | +70.0% | +19.9% | geschlossen |
| MSFT | exrc | 2021-03-19 | 2021-04-09 | 2026-05-28 | 21d | 10K | $220.56 | $244.97 | $509.17 | +130.9% | +107.8% | +23.0% | offen ← |
| MSFT | exrc | 2021-03-19 | 2021-04-09 | 2026-05-28 | 21d | 10K | $220.56 | $244.97 | $509.17 | +130.9% | +107.8% | +23.0% | offen ← |
| MSFT | opt | 2022-05-24 | 2022-06-03 | 2026-05-28 | 10d | 1K | $251.19 | $261.25 | $509.17 | +102.7% | +94.9% | +7.8% | offen ← |
| MSFT | opt | 2022-05-24 | 2022-06-03 | 2026-05-28 | 10d | 4K | $251.19 | $261.25 | $509.17 | +102.7% | +94.9% | +7.8% | offen ← |
| MSFT | exrc | 2023-06-15 | 2023-06-22 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $340.05 | $331.86 | $509.17 | +49.7% | +53.4% | −3.7% | offen ← |
| MU | opt | 2021-12-21 | 2021-12-29 | 2022-09-16 | 8d | 10K | $88.56 | $93.92 | $51.84 | −41.5% | −44.8% | +3.4% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | opt | 2021-06-03 | 2021-07-02 | 2022-07-26 | 29d | 5K | $16.93 | $20.44 | $16.51 | −2.5% | −19.2% | +16.8% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | stk | 2021-07-23 | 2021-08-20 | 2022-07-26 | 28d | 5K | $19.51 | $20.77 | $16.51 | −15.4% | −20.5% | +5.1% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | opt | 2021-07-23 | 2021-08-20 | 2022-07-26 | 28d | 5K | $19.51 | $20.77 | $16.51 | −15.4% | −20.5% | +5.1% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | exrc | 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-14 | 2022-07-26 | 27d | 10K | $15.85 | $15.35 | $16.51 | +4.1% | +7.6% | −3.4% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | exrc | 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-14 | 2022-09-16 | 27d | 5K | $15.85 | $15.35 | $13.18 | −16.9% | −26.9% | +10.1% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | exrc | 2022-06-17 | 2022-07-14 | 2024-12-31 | 27d | 5K | $15.85 | $15.35 | $134.25 | +746.7% | +797.0% | −50.3% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | opt | 2023-11-22 | 2023-12-21 | 2024-12-31 | 29d | 5K | $48.68 | $48.96 | $134.25 | +175.8% | +181.2% | −5.4% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | stk | 2024-06-26 | 2024-07-02 | 2025-12-24 | 6d | 10K | $126.34 | $122.61 | $179.24 | +41.9% | +46.2% | −4.3% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | stk | 2024-07-26 | 2024-07-30 | 2025-12-24 | 4d | 10K | $113.01 | $103.68 | $179.24 | +58.6% | +72.9% | −14.3% | geschlossen |
| NVDA | exrc | 2024-12-20 | 2025-01-17 | 2026-05-28 | 28d | 50K | $134.66 | $137.66 | $179.24 | +33.1% | +30.2% | +2.9% | offen ← |
| NVDA | opt | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-17 | 2026-05-28 | 3d | 5K | $131.72 | $137.66 | $179.24 | +36.1% | +30.2% | +5.9% | offen ← |
| NVDA | opt | 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 24d | 2K | $179.24 | $179.24 | $179.24 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| NVDA | exrc | 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $179.24 | $179.24 | $179.24 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| PANW | opt | 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-23 | 2026-05-28 | 11d | 5K | $185.99 | $141.04 | $183.03 | −1.6% | +29.8% | −31.4% | offen ← |
| PANW | opt | 2024-02-21 | 2024-02-23 | 2026-05-28 | 2d | 2K | $130.99 | $141.04 | $183.03 | +39.7% | +29.8% | +10.0% | offen ← |
| PANW | exrc | 2024-12-20 | 2025-01-17 | 2026-05-28 | 28d | 14K | $186.78 | $177.11 | $183.03 | −2.0% | +3.3% | −5.4% | offen ← |
| PYPL | exrc | 2022-01-21 | 2022-02-28 | 2022-12-21 | 38d | 5K | $162.67 | $111.33 | $68.84 | −57.7% | −28.7% | −29.0% | geschlossen |
| RBLX | opt | 2021-12-20 | 2021-12-29 | 2022-12-28 | 9d | 5K | $98.69 | $97.34 | $26.16 | −73.5% | −65.9% | −7.6% | geschlossen |
| RBLX | opt | 2021-12-20 | 2021-12-29 | 2026-05-28 | 9d | 5K | $98.69 | $97.34 | $124.94 | +26.6% | +28.4% | −1.8% | offen ← |
| TEM | opt | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-17 | 2026-05-28 | 3d | 5K | $31.83 | $35.15 | $57.81 | +81.6% | +64.5% | +17.2% | offen ← |
| TEM | exrc | 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $57.81 | $57.81 | $57.81 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
| TSLA | opt | 2020-12-22 | 2021-01-21 | 2022-12-20 | 30d | 3K | $213.45 | $281.66 | $137.80 | −35.4% | −56.1% | +20.7% | geschlossen |
| TSLA | exrc | 2022-03-17 | 2022-03-21 | 2022-12-20 | 4d | 3K | $290.53 | $307.05 | $137.80 | −52.6% | −59.8% | +7.2% | geschlossen |
| VST | opt | 2025-01-14 | 2025-01-17 | 2026-05-28 | 3d | 5K | $169.35 | $169.70 | $206.26 | +21.8% | +21.5% | +0.2% | offen ← |
| VST | exrc | 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | 2026-05-28 | 7d | 5K | $206.26 | $206.26 | $206.26 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | offen ← |
- Option-Modell: [OP]-Käufe = N×100 Underlying-Shares. Tatsächliche Hebelrenditen sind höher.
- FIFO: Chronologisches Lot-Matching; Verkäufe ohne tracked Lot = pre-2021 Bestand.
- Gewichtung: Amount-Midpoint der PTR-Range ($1M–$5M etc.).
- DAF-Beiträge = Verkauf zum Marktpreis.
- Offene Positionen bewertet zum Stichtag 2026-05-28.
Virale Berichte zitieren Pelosi-Renditen von 200–500 % und behaupten, sie schlage den S&P 500 um ein Vielfaches. Unser Backtest kommt auf +83.1 % vs. +75.9 % (SPY) — leichte Outperformance, aber keine außergewöhnliche. Der Unterschied hat drei methodische Ursachen:
Optionen werden als Underlying-Äquivalent gerechnet — nicht gehebelt.
Pelosi kauft fast ausschließlich Call-Optionen. Ein Kontrakt berechtigt zu 100 Aktien — wir buchen daher N×100 Aktien zum Aktienkurs (nicht zur Options-Prämie). Die tatsächliche Hebelrendite wäre um ein Vielfaches höher: Der NVDA-Lot von Juni 2022 zeigt bei uns +747 %; als echte Long-Call-Position wäre die Prämie möglicherweise versixtacht oder mehr.
Alle Positionen, nicht nur die Gewinner.
Populäre Tracker zeigen oft nur den NVDA-Lot oder die Top-5-Positionen. Unser Backtest enthält alle 67 Lots inklusive der Verlierer: PYPL −57,7 %, CRM −48,0 %, TSLA −46,9 %. Das senkt den Durchschnitt erheblich.
Zeitfenster: ab erstem PTR-Filing, nicht ab 2015.
Unsere Daten beginnen am 21.01.2021 (erstes verfügbares PTR-Filing). Vorherige Transaktionen sind im House-Clerk-Archiv ab 2012 vorhanden, aber hier nicht erfasst. Analysen, die frühere Trades einschließen, können ein anderes Gesamtbild zeigen — insbesondere wenn Pelosi pre-2021 stärker in Tech-Wachstum investiert war.
Amount-Gewichtung statt gleichgewichtet.
Wir gewichten jeden Lot nach dem offengelegten Dollar-Betrag (Midpoint der PTR-Range). Der NVDA-Lot mit +747 % trägt nur ca. 7 % zum Gesamtportfolio bei — weil die offengelegte Betragsspanne ($250K–$500K) gemessen am Gesamtvolumen klein ist. Gleichgewichtet würde NVDA dominieren und die Gesamtrendite deutlich höher ausfallen.
Das Fazit dieser methodisch sauberen Betrachtung: Nancy Pelosi erzielt eine leichte Outperformance gegenüber dem S&P 500 (+7.2 Punkte über den gesamten Zeitraum). Das ist bemerkenswert — aber kein Beweis für systematischen Insiderhandel, sondern konsistent mit einem gut informierten Tech-Investor mit Zugang zu Policy-Intelligence.
Offizielle PTR-Dokumente gemäß STOCK Act — direkt vom Clerk of the House of Representatives.
| Filing-Datum | Doc ID | Tx | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-21 | 20018011 | 6 | PDF ↗ |
| 2021-03-09 | 20018355 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2021-04-09 | 20018539 | 5 | PDF ↗ |
| 2021-07-02 | 20019004 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2021-08-20 | 20019331 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2021-12-29 | 20020106 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-01-12 | 20020208 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-02-28 | 20020515 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-03-04 | 20020561 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-03-21 | 20020662 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-05-03 | 20020916 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-06-03 | 20021142 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-07-14 | 20021374 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-07-26 | 20021438 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-09-09 | 20021675 | 1 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-10-14 | 20021837 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2022-11-30 | 20022063 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-01-12 | 20022260 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-01-25 | 20022320 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-04-06 | 20022664 | 1 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-06-06 | 20023080 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-06-22 | 20023192 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2023-12-21 | 20024186 | 3 | PDF ↗ |
| 2024-02-23 | 20024542 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2024-03-21 | 20024625 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2024-07-02 | 20025368 | 4 | PDF ↗ |
| 2024-07-30 | 20025535 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2024-09-11 | 20025819 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2025-01-17 | 20026590 | 8 | PDF ↗ |
| 2025-07-09 | 20030630 | 2 | PDF ↗ |
| 2025-10-24 | 20033337 | — | PDF ↗ |
| 2026-01-23 | 20033725 | 8 | PDF ↗ |